Iran have launched a space rocket.

And in doing so they have become, in my opinion at least, the most credible antagonist to US foot-stompery since ???[1].

Iran – centerpiece to Middle Eastern stability

Unlike Kim Jong Il, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to understand (i) the reality of geopolitical power and (ii) how to use this power to promote Iran’s cause in the Middle East. And through the judicious use of scientifically legitimate (i.e. non-military) tests he has managed to ruffle the feathers of those clout-spent hawks in Washington while carefully retaining the moral highground on external interference in his country.

Well done to him – a very astute play on the politics of lines in the sand.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

And what about his cause for flexing his well-behaved muscle like this?
As I see it, it is relatively simple; as the only Shi’a dominated Islamic state he must, at all costs, not allow the invasion of Iraq to marginalise Shi’a muslims even more.
He is, both geographically and socially, in a unique position to prevent the Middle East from being overrun by the US and their Sunni trade partners.

I’m not saying that his motivations are without a personal agenda (influence in Iraq) or ambition for his nation-state[2], but Iran (and I know that this sounds weird) is the best-placed Islamic state to maintain a sensible balance of power in the region.

Iranian rocket launch

Another Iranian rocket launch

Which brings me to my point; how little I actually know about Muslim history and politics.
As anyone who scans on-line news headlines knows the Muslim world is divided into two dominant camps; Sunni and Shia.
But what I didn’t realise is how overwhelming the Sunni majority is.
Shi’a muslims account for around 8-15%[3] of all muslims – Sunni for just about all of the remaining 85%. There are also other marginal groups such as the Ibadi.

The odds are seriously stacked in favour of the Sunni.

Have a look at the below map (courtesty of the CIA, via Wikipedia).

Distribution of muslim groups

Given this headcount reality Iran have a very important part to play(along with, especially, Israel) in retaining a balanced diversity of power in this region.
Rock on, keep your head, stand your ground – claim your Gravity’s Rainbow.

[1] I’ll still think of one
[2] let’s not be naive here
[3] depending on who you believe